Sunday, May 12, 2013

What to do with Damascus

Syria is spiraling badly out of control. The situation there has been a crisis for years now, but in the last few weeks things have gotten markedly worse. The accusation and presumed use of chemical weapons by the Syrian government reflects their desperation, and recent strikes by Israel as well as the increased involvement of Hezbollah in support of Assad all point to an increasingly combustible situation that could devolve into a regional war.

So what to do? Our intervention in Libya was very effective even if the aftermath has been ugly - and perhaps getting uglier - but the situation in Syria is far more complex. Informed readers know the complexities of the situation, so rather than detailing them, I will focus on a more important issue: what should we do?

Some might say the answer is nothing. Those people are not John McCain, and while I'm not sure if I'm willing to take it as far as Senator McCain just yet, I think the time has passed when we can stand idly by and watch as more innocent lives are lost, more regional turmoil is created, and anti-American groups solidify their positions thus sowing the seeds for further violence both in the Middle East and potentially here in America. The options in Syria are all fraught with peril. We want to avoid being drawn into another war ourselves, but the humanitarian and national security crises are building and we cannot avoid them. The president's approach thus far has been too cautious and timid. It is long past time to act.

First, America should work with our NATO allies, not Israel, to establish a no fly zone over Syria. Though Israel is next door and has the capacity to be a strong contributor in this effort, an Israeli presence would only help rally support for Assad and jihadist elements such as Hezbollah. A NATO no fly zone would prevent the further use of air power and potential chemical weapons use by the Assad government, and the success of Israeli airstrikes shows that it can be done with no casualties.

Second, we should invest ourselves in diplomatic negotiations with Russia - as we have begun to do - to prevent future aid to Assad. Russia knows they are on the losing side of this fight, so effective diplomacy and a promise to protect Russian interests could be a heavy blow to what is left of Assad's government (if anything is left at all).

Finally, we should work more proactively with the rebel groups on the ground to identify which are willing to form a government we can support and which are likely to be future threats. We should support the democratic groups with lethal and non-lethal aid, and coordinate with them, if possible, on the security of chemical weapons sites and support airstrikes.

None of these ideas are uniquely mine, but when done together, they would allow us to experience in Syria the same kind of success we achieved in Libya. Hopefully, we could learn from our mistakes in the aftermath, and prevent the same kinds of problems that are plaguing that country now. We could be successful without sending US troops.

It is imperative that we do something, because the political and humanitarian situations are out of control and have been for sometime. Without American action, this crisis is likely to grow even more and spiral further out of control. The longer we sit, the worse things will become.

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