Wednesday, February 27, 2013

Trial and (Maybe) Error

The sequester is upon us! We somehow dodged the rapture (twice now if I recall correctly) and the Mayan Apocalypse, but we did technically fall over the fiscal cliff. Will we avoid the sequester? Probably not. As a result the country will be subject to disastrous spending cuts at a time when we least need them. That this will happen represents the complete and abject failure of our political system. Our politicians came up with a package of cuts so abhorrent it would force them into enacting policy, and lo and behold, we failed to act. We know we've hit the nadir of political activity when the people we elect to fix our problems just create more of them. The sequester is an embarrassment, a word I use too often - but do not misuse - to describe our political system.

What could we do? Neither side is willing to back down here. The new breed of Republicans wants spending cuts no matter what, even if they're misapplied and trivial. They're right that we need cuts, but not in the manner they envision - in fact in a manner fundamentally different from what they envision. If we really want to fix our structural spending issues we need to address entitlement reform and military spending. I'll shelve military spending for now and focus on entitlement spending, though I do think there are substantial and significant areas in which we can reform defense spending to make it more efficient and still make sure that our military is the world's most advanced and well-prepared for the potential challenges we face.

On to Medicare and Social Security - and let me be clear here, the Democratic hands-off approach to these entitlement programs is unacceptable, we need to reform them both - there are things we can start experimenting with that might be suitable areas of compromise.

For starters we should acknowledge that both of these programs allocate money to seniors regardless of need. Why? That seems silly. What if you don't need Medicare or Social Security benefits? Couldn't we find a way to start means-testing these things on the affluent elderly? Democrats are loathe to raise the retirement and Medicare eligibility (I disagree with this), but they make a strong case that for the people who need benefits most haven't benefited from the increased standard of living and therefore longer life spans of the more affluent. Fair enough, so why not raise the retirement and Medicare eligibility age for people making more than $X? This could be phased in slowly with the age rising slowly until a cap was reached.

This step alone would save both programs money, but it represents something more important: a smart investment. The answer to our spending problems isn't to simply cut spending, it's to invest wisely. Spending government money on people who don't need it isn't a smart investment. Perhaps one views this as punishing success, but it hardly seems like punishment to deny people resources they don't need. Compare the idea of giving the affluent less in terms of social security and Medicare benefits with taking more from them via higher taxes. Which is more appealing? What about adjusting cost-of-living benefits for those who make more money?

What if I take this to a crazy extreme, but one that makes sense to me, what if we make Medicare an emergency insurance provider to people whose income exceeds $X? The conservative ideology around taxes works something like this: people who pay less in taxes, and therefore have more to spend, are more likely to use their money to grow the economy either through investment or through spending. I agree with this, but that same level of confidence and security doesn't come only through taxes, it comes through knowing you have insurance as well. So what if we make Medicare emergency insurance? Right now my mother, who is retired, can have a check up at her doctor covered by Medicare. That's great except that she can afford that on her own or through a private plan. However if she were to develop a serious medical condition that wouldn't be the case. If we make Medicare emergency insurance covering all major medical issues costing over $X then we put the onus on individuals to maintain healthy lifestyles and cover the cost of minor issues while establishing a safety net that acknowledges that sometimes disasters happen and we want to provide the necessary level of support for our fellow Americans in time of dire need.

These are just some ideas for fixing our long-term, structural issues. There are many more being proposed by people who are far more knowledgeable than I am, but we must begin a trial and error approach to reforming our entitlements if we are going to get our finances in order over the long term. I would hope ideas such as these could help Democrats and Republicans find some common ground on significant spending cuts that would actually help allay some of our long-term budget issues and let us avoid the looming, arbitrary, and potentially devastating cuts included in the sequester.

Sunday, February 24, 2013

I Would Be a Republican If...

Well a lot of things actually. So here we go...

1) First and foremost, they have to ditch the social baggage. A recent NYTimes article highlighted that many young voters rejected Mitt Romney because of his stance on social issues. This is a very good reason to reject Republicans. They're ass-backwards socially. Stop fighting battles that have already been lost and embrace equal rights for everyone.

2) Do math. This is kind of a big deal. You can't pretend to care about the deficit and then present budget proposals that add to the deficit. It's easy to say we have to cut spending and lower the deficit, but when your policies actually do just the opposite you lose a lot of credibility. Math is big. Also science. The world is older than 6000 years. It is also getting warmer, and yes, we did evolve from a common ancestor with apes. These things are true. It's okay that you didn't believe them 100 years ago perhaps. At one point most smart people thought the world was flat and that the sun revolved around it. We can't fault them in their time. We can fault you for living in 2013 and still refusing to accept science. Try acknowledging facts.

3) Stop lying. See point two above. When you claim that your budget plan decreases the deficit, but then when the math is done and it adds to the deficit, and yet you repeatedly claim that it decreases the deficit, you are lying. When you continue to espouse the idea that Obama is from Kenya or that Obamacare mandates death panels, you are lying. The reason I'm happiest that Mitt Romney lost the election - even more so than disagreeing with some of his ideas - is that he was willing to stand in front of the American people and lie over and over and over again to get elected. Had we chosen to elect him we would have shown the world that we are willing to be duped. I'm glad we showed otherwise, but our rejection of Romney shows that if Republicans want to be a viable political party, they should cut down on the lies.

4) And this is really the crux of the whole issue because as I've said time and time again, Republicans have a lot of good ideas. They really do. Their overall platform is abhorrent, but there are big pieces of it that would do the country good. The problem is Republicans won't put their money where their mouth is. The basic Republican platform of self-empowerment is a good one. It's too bad Republicans don't actually believe in it. I wish that we could cut down on spending and rectify some of our social issues - crime and poverty for example - by empowering individuals. But in order to do that we actually have to take action steps and this is where Republicans fail. I've mentioned in previous posts that good businesspeople link spending to outcomes, they don't eschew spending money altogether.

If we are going to empower people, we need to invest in them, and this is exactly what Republicans won't do. It's easy to stand at a podium and talk about the American dream, or even - if you're Marco Rubio - to talk about how YOU are the American dream. But the American dream is dying, we're less socially mobile than socialist, economically sclerotic Europe! Preaching about the American dream puts the onus on failing to achieve it on those who don't, an increasing number of people, most of whom strive nobly everyday despite playing with the odds stacked against them. This rhetoric of empowerment sounds good put does nothing to fix the problem; Republicans don't invest in the American people. They blame those who haven't for their failures rather than providing them with opportunities, thereby creating a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Until Republicans actually show that the believe in their narrative and accept investments in education, infrastructure, job training programs, and a refined social safety net (as opposed to no social safety net), then they are guilty of what Mitt Romney proved they were guilty of - dismissing half the country without considering what steps we could take as a society to empower the infamous 47% of moochers; that number, by the way, is a lie.

The Republican issue can be boiled down simply. They fit facts to their world view rather than adapting their world view to facts. There is no denying that Democrats are guilty of some of these things, no one would deny that liberal politicians lie or struggle with facts, but one party is far guiltier of this than the other, and the Republican narrative, which is at its root a good one - empower the people - has become massively corrupted by their refusal to acknowledge that if we are going to create a society in which individuals feel as though they have the means to take a risk and do something great, we must have equality of opportunity. This is far different from equal outcomes for which we should not be striving, but Republicans are content to let many Americans languish and blame them for being lazy. It's a worldview unique to a group of people who are increasingly disconnected from reality.

I would be a Republican if they actually put forth policies designed to create equal opportunity, if they really believed in small-government, market-oriented solutions to problems and presented budgets based around investing wisely, cutting waste including in the defense budget, and reforming entitlements. If they were willing to apply those solutions to problems such as global warming without denying that the earth is getting hotter. I would be a Republican if they gave up on outdated economic ideology and stopped trying to convince us that if we only give the rich more the rest of us may get a little too. None of these things are impossible. There are actually Republicans talking about some of these things, but alas, as a group, they party is nowhere close to changing its ideas or its image, and as a result, I am nowhere close to becoming a Republican. Too bad for them, much of the rest of the country isn't either.

Sunday, February 17, 2013

Now or Never Future

"...the future becomes the present, the present becomes the past, and the past turns into everlasting regret if you don't plan for it!" So said Tennessee Williams in The Glass Menagerie, unintentionally shedding light on the current political predicament in which we find ourselves.

In wrestling with all of the issues with which America must deal, we can boil many of them down to a matter of political will. Take for example economic uncertainty, an ironic focal points for Republicans who are correct in saying that businesses are timid about investing for the future, but who fail to realize that their refusal to cooperate is the cause of this uncertainty. Similarly we can look to public education, a huge problem in many parts of the country, and a field in which much progress is being made, but in which more could be done if we had the political will to act quickly and decisively.

But we don't. We punt, we squabble, we punt again. Doers do, meanwhile, but we're not empowering them. We live happily and comfortably in the present without much regard for the future. But the future will be here soon, and if we don't start preparing for it then it will in fact ultimately become everlasting regret. A blissful present is not synonymous with a prosperous future, but nor are these two things mutually exclusive. We can live well now and be ready for tomorrow, but we must act. Complacency is a by-product of hubris, and we don't need another quote from a Greek playwright to show us where hubris leads.

I wake up each day knowing that I live in the best country in the world, but recognizing that is only true because the people who came before me - both living and dead - looked to the future, did great things, planned ahead, and paved the way for the success we experience today. If we do not do the same will Americans born 25 years from now feel the same way I do?

It's not as though we are searching for the right path forward. We know that when it comes to laying the foundation for economic success we must find a way to increase revenue, curb spending, and invest wisely. We can disagree on specifics of what that looks like, but the general idea is there. Why can't our politicians make it happen? The future is coming, and it's now or never getting ready for it. I'd like to think we'll choose now, but when I read the news it appears as though we are content with never.

Carpe diem, but don't settle for success today. Carpe diem tomorrow too. And the day after that. Carpe every diem as a matter of fact. It's only if we do that, if we accept that success today does not necessarily mean success tomorrow, that we will actually set ourselves up for a prosperous future.

Wednesday, February 13, 2013

Statements about the Union

Gosh the president can give a speech. Every time I watch him I walk away impressed. I'm usually more or less on board with his vision, but the man has no current rival when it comes to oration. He just knows how to speak. In case you missed it, you can get the full transcript here.

Last night's speech was a particularly good one. President Obama laid out a vision for prosperity and growth that even won him praise from Fox News! Imagine that...The president's speech was great precisely because he believes in the one thing that Republicans do not seem to believe in, that America is stronger when ALL Americans have opportunities. The root of the schism between Democrats and Republicans is simple yet vast. Democrats believe in an America for everyone, Republicans nominated a man who wrote off 47% of the country. It's really that simple, and the policy proposals presented by each side reflect that schism.

The president hammered Republicans on that issue last night, pointing out repeatedly that we have been making progress over the last four years, "we can say with renewed confidence that the state of our union is stronger." And it is, because we have worked towards building our middle class. Obama made it a point to say what everyone who understands economics and not ideology already knows, that our main priority should be creating jobs, not reducing the deficit, "Now, most of us agree that a plan to reduce the deficit must be part of our agenda. But let's be clear, deficit reduction alone is not an economic plan. A growing economy that creates good, middle-class jobs -- that must be the North Star that guides our efforts." I was particularly impressed and excited by the president's proposal for manufacturing hubs. I'd like more details, but the idea is great.

And to me that idea sums up the theme of the president's speech, one that I mention repeatedly, and the only path forward for America, a thriving public-private partnership that harnesses the efforts of both in a collaborative manner. This does mean more efficient and thus smaller government, but it doesn't mean the absence of government and it surely does not look anything like the vision (or lack thereof) presented by Republicans - more on that in a minute. How about the President's "Fix-It-First" program, a partnership to fix our infirmed infrastructure? Why is there not more talk about public-private initiatives to bring more mass transit to and among our cities? If you've ever been unfortunate to fly on American Airlines you would be desperate for rapid inter-city transit. Universal Pre-K? Absolutely. Let's invest in Americans, let's use public resources to give our citizens the capacity to do, and then let's step back and watch them do. Public-private partnership.

An important part of this is spending efficiently, and I loved that the president made that link on multiple occasions. Every good businessman knows that it is important to link funds to outcomes. Republicans preach austerity, but good business don't. They spend. In fact the whole theory behind the failed Republican approach to economics is that if we give rich people more they will spend it to create jobs. Underpinning their ideology is the idea that we do need to spend! But we should spend smartly so let's do that. Said the president, "Every dollar we invest in high-quality early childhood education can save more than seven dollars later on," and "Every dollar we invested to map the human genome returned $140 to our economy -- every dollar." Funds to outcomes, that's a 7% and a 140% return on our investments, 7% is good, 140% is unfathomable. Spend smartly.

Meanwhile, Marco Rubio had the unfortunate task of delivering the rebuttal, a job he did eloquently but predictably. If the president soared, Marco meandered. He offered the same trite platitudes we've come to expect, lying through his teeth about the cause of the recession, and accusing Obamacare of costing private sector jobs, when private sector jobs are increasing. Marco seemed to be particularly offended by the criticism commonly leveled at his party, "We only care about rich people." If that's not true then prove it. Prove you don' just care about rich people. He then took time to rail against tax hikes on the rich, "Raising taxes won’t create private sector jobs, and there’s no realistic tax increase that could lower our deficits by almost $4 trillion." That's all well and good, but it's not what the President is proposing. You can't rebut ideas the other guy isn't offering. Marco sounded good, but his speech was nothing but the Republican party's intellectual bankruptcy on full display. 

Back to the President who was busy reminding us of why we are great, and how much greater we could be if we really were all in this together, "Stronger families. Stronger communities. A stronger America. It is this kind of prosperity -- broad, shared, built on a thriving middle class -- that has always been the source of our progress at home."

It was a speech worthy of the moment, a moment in which the American people chose to re-elect the man who has helped us move forward from the hardships of the past four years, and one who has a vision not just for the next four, but for the next forty. There were some pretty strong statements about the union made last night, and I was reminded once again how proud I am to be an American, and how inspired I am to play my part in making this country stronger by making it better for all Americans. 

Monday, February 11, 2013

Young and Restless

I'm always encouraged when my generation, the millennials, does something to prove that we are not actually the X-Box generation, but actually doing things and facing the issues of our time. Perhaps one reason politicians in Washington can't get anything done is because they're too old and stuck in the past, maybe Generation Y can bring some fresh ideas and vigor to a stagnant system.

With that in mind, I was encouraged though unsurprised by this article on the political leanings of my generation. I've said time and time again that the social battles we are currently fighting have already been won in the future. We will one day be curious to understand the bigotry that currently exists around gay marriage and the unbelievable reasoning that leads some to conclude that a woman should not have control over her own body. It frustrates me that we have to fight these battles, but we do so knowing that we have already won.

But that wasn't really news. What was a bit surprising was the revelation that most people under 30 see the government as a force for good. I don't see why this should surprise us. Government is often inefficient, sometimes corrupt, and certainly not always right, but I've always been amused by the contention that we shouldn't trust the government. "That to secure these rights, governments are instituted among men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed." For a group of people who worship the founders, Republicans seem to have forgotten that those very people conceived of government as a force for good, and throughout the history of our country the government's record - tarnished indeed - has still been pretty solid, and it is undeniable that while certain government institutions needs improving, they still provide valuable services to the American people.

But I'm not here today to make the case for government. We can evaluate the government's track record and draw our own conclusions. I am here to be encouraged by the fact that my generation is engaged and shares my belief that America will be better and stronger when government plays an active role: building infrastructure; offering a social safety net for the needy; collaborating with private entrepreneurs to create favorable business climates that allow for innovation; and smartly regulating those business initiatives.

Republicans view government as a way to pay for the military - another important service provided by Uncle Sam - but nothing else. They ignore for example, that government spending on the arts contributes to American culture and that government spending on research and science has unleashed waves of private innovation. Could we make the government more efficient? Absolutely, but we shouldn't forget that America works best when the public and private sectors work together, not in opposition to the other. Strangely, one of the primary Republican arguments for not cutting defense funding is that it will lead to job loss, but weaponized Keynesianism is as far as Republican logic will go. The cognitive dissonance around recognizing that, but not understanding how it applies to scientific research is really staggering.

Perhaps because my generation is probably the best-educated and most fortunate group of people to ever inhabit the planet we recognize these things. But being young and fortunate isn't quite enough, we need to be restless too. Recognizing the way forward is an encouraging start. Getting there is going to take some elbow grease. Let's get moving.

Friday, February 8, 2013

Be like Vike

It's never fair to make an apples-to-apples comparison of the United States and other countries. Whether we are comparing our fiscal situation to Greece's or using the Netherlands as a blueprint for legalizing marijuana, we are doing ourselves a disservice. We are neither Greece nor the Netherlands, nor any other country. There are many things that make America unique and great that are exclusively American.

Having said that, we should not shy away from learning from other countries and taking their best practices. For all of the problems we face in America, we're still America, but we should not be arrogant and assume that all of our practices and institutions are perfect by virtue of the fact that we conceived of them. Many of our models need reworking or overhaul, and it behooves us to find models which we can attempt to emulate.

Right now, it seems the Viking Model is a pretty good template. It's not that the Scandinavians are necessarily breaking new ground - many of the things they are doing I have mentioned repeatedly in my blogs and are part of the national political conversation - it's the fact that the Scandinavians are actually doing these things and getting results. The model is to the right on taxing and spending, to the left on benefits and welfare, proving that it is possible to be fiscally responsible and humane while fostering the conditions for economic growth. Easier, certainly, in a homogenous country of 9.5 million like Sweden than in sprawling, diverse America, home to 320 million, but doable nonetheless.

From the Scandinavian model we can draw certain lessons. Smaller government is not necessarily better, but more efficient government is. The two are not synonymous although we do need to shrink the government. The Vikings have actually figured out to make government larger and more efficient, which seems paradoxical, but is nevertheless working. What we can really take away from the Scandinavian model is the idea that the public and private sectors can and should work together to foster growth for everyone. Economic growth, equal opportunity, and a healthy degree of welfare are not mutually exclusive. We can have all three!

The Nordic model is not perfect, nor is it necessarily replicable for America. But it combines smart ideas from the right and left side of the political spectrum in an attempt to fix the same sorts of problems we are facing. Replicable? Maybe, maybe not, but we know there is a more centrist route that incorporates economically sound ideas from the political left and right. We have chosen to completely ignore this path in America, but the Scandinavians are trying to show us, and the rest of the world, that such a path is preferable to either of the alternatives currently being debated: taxing and spending in an unsustainable manner or wantonly cutting spending thereby diminishing future growth and hurting the neediest. Let's give the Viking model a shot, Vikings are cool, oh, and they're doing this.

Tuesday, February 5, 2013

An America for Everyone

Lost amid the rancor of politics in Washington and the jaw-dropping inability of our politicians to do anything positive in most areas, the recent proposals on immigration reform coming out of Washington are nothing short of miraculous. And not only do actual policy proposals exist, they're pretty good ones! The American government kind of works, sort of, sometimes!

Immigration should be an easy fix, but then again so should most of our other problems. Sensible people know what needs to be done to tackle comprehensive immigration reform: tighter border security; programs to encourage high-skilled, highly-educated immigrants to stay in America and easier pathways for them to stay after getting a degree; and a pathways to citizenship for the 11 million or so illegal immigrants who are already here among other things.

In an unusual turn of events, it seems as though both parties have agreed on this framework, even Republicans have accepted that it is inhumane and expensive to deport 11 million people. Of course, they arrived at this conclusion due to political realities, not out of the goodness of their hearts, but it's still good news.

The case for immigration reform is easy to make. We are a nation of immigrants, not just from our beginnings, but on a continual basis. I live in New York City, and I can walk down the street and hear dozens of different languages being spoken. People from all over the world still want to come here in pursuit of freedom and opportunity, and many of them contribute nobly to our society by working, paying taxes, and creating jobs and opportunity. We should encourage them to keep coming and we should encourage them to stay. We should also try to stymie the tide of people flowing across our border illegally by beefing up border security, but we should not let this mindset affect our policies regarding the millions already here. Most of the 11 million illegal immigrants to the country came here looking for opportunity, and most are law abiding citizens who pay taxes and contribute to our economy and society. The immigration bills proposed recently address their path to citizenship while rightfully acknowledging that they should be in line behind those who started the process legally.

America needs to fix our immigration for both moral and economic reasons. We do ourselves a disservice when we pretend that our values do not apply to those born elsewhere. American values should be universal values. Furthermore, when we choose to deprive ourselves of talented individuals because those individuals were born elsewhere we deplete our talent pipeline and deny ourselves potential innovators, job creators, doctors, lawyers, teachers, etc. We are and shall remain an America for everyone.

It's encouraging to see that our legislators are finally willing to work together in order to solve what is a pressing issue for our nation's future and a moral obligation to extend to millions the freedoms we cherish. It's a big problem, but one with clear solutions, and I certainly hope that the bipartisan attempt to address it can serve as a catalyst for other necessary legislation. If immigration reform isn't killed by the loony bin (read: the House of Representatives) then I will be hopeful we can tackle other problems as well. I'm glad to see that the President and a bipartisan group of Senators are proposing pragmatic, humane, and forward-looking solutions to immigration problems. That itself is encouraging.