Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Skin in the game and the American dream

Senator Dan Coats (R-Indiana) wants everyone to "have some skin in the game."

What am I talking about?  Not gambling but paying taxes.  See, something like 50% of Americans don't pay income tax because, well because they don't make enough money.  While I could get off on a rant here about the American middle class it seems silly to rant about something that doesn't seem to exist.  That's another story.

Right now we're talking about what is wrong with America, and clearly, what is wrong is that only half of us "have some skin in the game."  The other 50%, well they simply are not on board since they are not paying income tax.  Nevermind that these people: A) don't make very much money, and B) pay a plethora of other taxes just like the rest of us, if I were a gambling man and put some skin in the game, I'd bet we could make our budget deficit disappear if we could just get the poor on board. 

I'll let John Stewart debunk the math behind this plan for you; he is funnier, more famous and smarter than I am anyhow.  Rather than trifling with numbers - which Republicans are incapable of anyhow - I would like to engage them on their playing field.  I'd like to talk to Republicans about the American dream. 

Republicans know all about the American dream; speaker Boehner used to mop the floor of his parents bar and now he cries on national television more than any single member of the Jersey Shore cast.  In fact, Republicans don't simply know about the American dream, they have a monopoly on it (including our slightly right of center President).  There is nothing better than the American dream.  Boy from Mississippi starts blog, slowly accumulates followers and becomes the next John Stewart.  That's just my story, what's yours?  It's a beautiful thing. 

Sadly, the American dream, like the American middle class is an endangered species.  It's nice to know that John Boehner used to sweep the floor.  What we also know is that 50% of Americans are too poor to pay income tax. They drive on my interstate and are protected by my FBI but they pay NO INCOME TAX! GASP!

Suffice it to say, anyone who can't afford to pay income tax is probably not living the dream and nearly 50% of the country cannot afford to pay income tax so where does that leave us?  It certainly doesn't bode well for the future of our country if the dream has failed half of us.  It certainly doesn't enhance our future prospects if we are counting on those too poor to pay income tax to lift us out of recession.

In short, we find ourselves in the awkward position of facing a frail and fragile American dream; one that is sick but that can be saved.  However saving the dream - and the nation's economy - is going to take a herculean effort; an effort that can only be delivered by our entire country, not just the bottom 50% financially and certainly not without the assistance of those fortunate enough to have found the American dream. 

Republicans want you to think that if we simply get out of the way then the American dream will spring back to life.  But if their plan asks for more from those who have less to give and ask for none from those who have the most to give, we must ask ourselves if they are protecting the American dream or if they are protecting the handful of individuals fortunate enough to have attained it. 

All American do need to have some skin in the game.  We need national unity and a common desire to make our nation better.  We should encourage everyone to be active participants in our society in whichever manner they choose to utilize their talents.  What we should not do is kick the American dream while it's down.  And right now, Republican policies would destroy whatever shred of that dream is left for half of America.  Rebuilding our social fabric and getting everyone to put some skin in the game has everything to do with giving people hope and investing them in their own future and nothing to do with taking money from those who don't have money to give. 

Wednesday, August 24, 2011

News in August

Qaddafi's goose seems to be cooked, that's good news.  Congress is vacationing after a grueling, taxing fight over the debt limit that shouldn't have happened.  The truth is it wasn't even very taxing; in fact it wasn't taxing at all, quite the contrary.  The president is busing around the country talking about why his plans for America are good; I can't see that he has a real plan unless one counts folding to the Tea Party.  Meanwhile the men and women vying to replace him are having a contest to determine who is the looniest; as I calculate it Michelle Bachmann and Ron Paul are the front-runners with poor old John Huntsman bringing up the rear with the unfortunate title of: the only real candidate. 

So August is perhaps a bit slow, but maybe that's good.  Maybe we can enjoy the next week of downtime to reflect on the plans that neither Obama nor the Republicans seem to be offering. 

Of course, any ideas that I present here are only mine in that I endorse them and embrace them.  Many of them come from far wiser people; for example, raising Warren Buffett's taxes is an idea put forth by Warren Buffett while credit for transitioning away from oil and towards wind power and natural gas goes to oil gazillionaire T. Boone Pickens.  Republicans are right: the rich do know the most about economic growth...Republicans are wrong: none of their ideas align with what the billionaires are saying...

Tangent, my apologies.  In all seriousness, now that we have put this whole debt limit fiasco behind us and my portfolio has disappeared, what can we do that will ACTUALLY stimulate economic growth.  How can we get Americans working again.  We should certainly hope that there is no WWIII on the horizon to act as the stimulus our economy needs, but in the fortunate absence of that type of calamity, what can we hope for, better yet, what can we do?

The answer, gulp, is to spend money.  For example, in America we have this great thing called the Interstate Highway System.  It's going on seven decades...we love our cars right? How about investing in our infrastructure?  What about technological infrastructure, how about a wireless America?  Making business more efficient and bringing everyone into the fold?  How about education, why don't we make Americans smarter so they're capable of working?

Interestingly, the NYSE was up roughly 3% yesterday on the assumption that the Fed would do...wait for it...wait for it...wait for it...would do MORE to stimulate the economy.  Yes America, we regained our confidence not when our leaders retreated from responsibility but on the hope that they would in fact do MORE to help us.  We want all these cuts, but we haven't thought through what we want cut and more importantly we have chosen quite possibly the WORST time to get sucked into spending cuts.  So after all the posturing of the last few months over fake crises, we now see that when the government does what they should have done all along, the private sector will follow...interesting.

So the news in August is slow, but the revelation is real; there is a time for spending and a time for cutting; a time for balanced budgets and a time for stimulus.  Now is the time for stimulus.  The economy needs it; America needs it.  We deserve better than what our leaders have given us and we certainly deserve better than what they are trying to take away.  Public investment does not mean the end of private sector growth; rather the former serves as a catalyst for the latter.  You don't need an economics textbook to know this, you can just study history, but alas, we're not interested in history, we're interested in cutting and apparently social studies is one of the subjects taking a hit. 

Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Tax Warren Buffett

That's not me being a jerk, that is actually what Warren Buffett wants the government to do. Weird right? I thought high taxes were anathema to economic growth and surely one of the world's wealthiest, self-made men knows something about economic growth.

Maybe Buffett was drunk or the piece was a forgery.  I just don't know.  Certainly it was enough of an insult to failed Republican policies that it drew the ire of the omnipotent Michelle Bachmann who challenged Buffett to make a charitable donation to the government.

Bachmann's suggestion was, of course, first reported by Faux News, the outlet for insanity these days.  But interestingly, even in their report there was criticism of failed conservative economic policy.  Reaganomics, the sacred theory of the trickle down, is clearly a joke.  This is no indictment of the free market, it is an indictment of policies that protect the rich at the expense of the middle class.  In America, we don't have to worry about that much anymore since the middle class is disappearing.

Leo Hindrey, "a member of Buffett's group" (presumably that means Berkshire Hathaway but with the "reporting" done by Fox it is pretty ambiguous) slams trickle down economics in the article, "How is it that 50 percent of the income is now earned by 3 percent of the taxpayers?"

That's a great question, Leo.  It's also a pretty staggering figure.  Half of the wealth in the country is controlled by a mere three percent of the population?  How is that good for anyone?  Have we forgotten that one of the main causes of the Great Depression was the fact that low wages created low demand.  Have we forgotten that American consumption still buoys the world economy?  Are we counting on three percent of Americans to buy enough stuff to keep the wheels of the world economy turning? I sure hope not because that would be very, very dumb.

Of course Michelle Bachmann is very, very dumb.  So maybe that is the assumption she and her ilk are making.  Maybe Warren Buffett, on the other hand, is not so dumb and realizes that an economic resurgence will be built on the back of a large and healthy middle class.  Furthermore, maybe Buffett - like myself and most Americans - wants that to be a large and healthy AMERICAN middle class rather than say a large and healthy Chinese middle class (not that I am opposed to that, I simply want what is best for America first and foremost).

So maybe Buffett's "socialist" idea is about redistributing wealth a bit.  That way we don't have to rely on a handful of rich people to buy thousands of yachts, cars, X-boxes and loaves of bread apiece in order to keep the economy afloat.  Though there are millionaires who make 100x what I do, I am certain they do not eat 100x as much as I do or own 100x as many X-boxes.  They certainly don't have 100x as many yachts, since anything times 0=0.  You get the point.

Think about this the next time you hear some conservative economic guru talk about the miracle of trickle down economics.  Think about it next time you hear a Tea Party clown talk about not raising taxes no matter what.

America needs me and you and hundreds of millions of others to be able to buy.  It's that simple.  So when Warren Buffett calls for higher taxes on the rich, he's not being generous and altruistic; he's being selfish.  He gets it.  He knows that his wealth is built on the diminishing purchasing power of a disappearing middle class.  He knows that, in order to maintain his wealth, he needs to do what is best for you and me and America, not just for him.  Warren Buffett is smart.  Tax Warren Buffett.

Monday, August 15, 2011

What we did and what we didn't

What we did: Cut spending during a recession - let's face it, we weren't recovering from the crash of 2008.  This defies every bit of economic logic, but we did it anyhow.  A fringe group took an important long-term issue and monopolized the national conversation with it.

What we did: Perhaps ignited a double-dip recession by cutting spending at the worst possible time.  I say perhaps because it's certainly possible that markets acted rationally to our irrational policy decisions.  Maybe we just threw things for a loop, maybe we actually made the hole a little bit deeper.

What we did: Allowed a small group of radicals to hijack the national conversation and orient our focus on a secondary issue (the deficit) while we did nothing to fix the real problem (unemployment).


What we didn't: Come up with a plan or long-term solution.  All the short-term spending cuts, if they achieve anything, will only hurt the economy.  We have done nothing to address long-term, structural issues such as entitlement or tax reform.  We have done nothing to fix the economy in the short-term.  In short, we have really done next to nothing.  Perhaps we've done even worse, perhaps we've taken a step backwards.

The results of the Tea Party's crusade have been disastrous.  With no understanding of economics, these people were allowed to hold the economy hostage.  Even Republican economists are denouncing their strident belief in cutting wantonly with no regard for programs, people or the greater good.  

Where this leaves us: Certainly no better off than we were before and perhaps in worse shape.  It is certainly good that we didn't default, but the damage was done as America's credibility suffered and our debt rating was downgraded by S&P.  There are many reasons to find fault with S&P, but those reasons did not assuage the panic that ensued immediately after the Tea Party led us to the brink of default.

Now that we have finally put this silly debt-limit debate behind us, it is time to focus on job creation.  It was actually time to focus on job creation two years ago, but some people didn't get that memo, so we find ourselves here today hoping that we can finally pay attention to the real problems.  More importantly, we need to remember going forward what issues are really the root of our problems and we need to elect people with an understanding of those issues and real ideas for how to fix them.  In short, we need to dump the tea.

Sunday, August 7, 2011

Double Dipping

The market tanked Thursday on fears of a double dip recession.  S&P downgraded our credit rating from AAA to AA+ on Friday.  Should we be worried? 

It definitely seems as though there is a chance that the economy is going to start going backwards again.  Not that it was really ever charging ahead at full steam at any point during the last two years. 

Certainly the economy needs fixing, our politicians have spent the last six months trying to fix a problem they created and one that was certainly less important than trying to foster economic growth.  In some sense they "fixed" that problem when they got a debt deal done last Tuesday, but it was a fake problem and the "fix" just made people more uncomfortable.

As much as the economy needs fixing and as real as our economic woes are, the bad news from the end of last week is a reflection on the sorry state of American politics, not the sorry state of the American economy.

The market took a nosedive last Thursday on fears of a double dip recession, fears that could have been alleviated if we had actually bothered trying to fix the economy.  American politicians (I'm looking at you Tea Party) are to blame for this.  The fact that S&P downgraded our credit rating doesn't have as much to do with our spending - remember just a decade ago we had a surplus each year and were paying off our debt - it has to do with the fact that our political system has hardened into two rigid camps of people more bent on demonizing each other than working together.  One group is more guilty than the other, but both are to blame. 

Our economy is broken, but our political system may be in even worse shape.  America's broken politics are hampering our economic recovery. 

If we are going to put America back on the path to prosperity and avoid a double dip recession we will need our politicians to acknowledge what the real problems are, set aside their differences and make tough and necessary compromises.  America is going to pay our debts, but as long as politicians continue to ignore the real problems and refuse to work together then our economic recovery will continue to be as flat and stagnant as it has been for the last two years.

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Tragicomedy

Faux News headline: "Bad Signal, Markets Selloff Sends Message That Economic Woes Deeper Than Debt Debate."

Newsflash Fox, everyone but the Tea Party has known that for a while.  If we'd worried about fixing the economy instead of turning the secondary issue into the only issue maybe this wouldn't have happened.  If your "news" organization was a real media outlet instead of a political organization posing as reporters then perhaps you could have been objective and seen this coming.  Instead, you plugged the Tea Party and now you're stumbling onto the realization that the debt wasn't the issue.

Tragicomic.

Thank your local Tea Party...

For today's miserable stock performance.  As of 2:15, the S&P was down 3.25% and the Dow was down 3.00%.  Why you may ask?  Due to fears of a double-dip recession. 

Why are investors worried about a double-dip recession in the days after we raised the debt ceiling?  There's a simple answer for that too: by cutting drastically while growth slow we spat on history and ignored every economics textbook in the country.  We did perhaps the dumbest possible thing to spur economic growth.  Demand is low and so we cut spending, lessening demand.  The facts, the obvious and the lessons of history were discarded on the trash heap on lunacy by a movement of people who held our economy hostage, got sensible people to cave into their demands and then set us on a path backwards.  I'm talking to you Tea Party.

And that's why today, I'm looking at all the gains my meager investments have made over the course of the last seven months totally disappear.  In one fell swoop of stupidity, the Tea Party caused panic that erased seven months of (tepid) growth. 

Perhaps this is a one day hiccup.  Who knows, maybe investors will seize on low prices tomorrow and go on a stock bargain-buying binge.  I certainly hope so since my small portfolio took one on the chin today. 

But I don't have a reason to be optimistic, after all, the underlying fears of a double-dip recession today won't have evaporated by tomorrow.  Remarkably ill-timed spending cuts have been enacted and investors have a reason to worry.  Actually, all Americans as well as citizens of every country plugged into the global economy have a reason to worry.  The Tea Party is poison to America, but the world economy is still linked to the United States, so the Tea Party has the power to harm billions of people worldwide. 

Let this be a lesson America.  Federal spending and the deficit are issues that must be addressed in a wise manner, not the wanton approach of 70 idiots with no political or economic experience.  Furthermore, the federal deficit is still secondary to our economic recovery.  Putting people back to work will increase tax revenues without raising taxes and will go a long way towards putting our country back on sound fiscal footing.  Only after we have fixed the economy should we reexamine and revamp federal spending. 

But we've already made that mistake so now the important issue is making sure we don't make it again.  No amount of Tea Party fanaticism and fantasy math, no heavy doses of fool's demagoguery and economic planning by people with no experience is going to fix our economy.  So the next time we have an opportunity to vote, let us make sure we vote for the people who know what is best for America and have some vision of our country that doesn't involve another recession and the decline of America, because that is where the Tea Party is leading us. 

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

The Joke's on America

Hooray! No default! Great news! Victory lap! They agreed!

It is encouraging that America will not default on our loans, although by encouraging I mean it's an embarrassment that we ever go to this point to begin with.  Still the deal is bad and reflects the foolishness of the Tea Party as well as their power. 

The lessons of history as well as every economic textbook tell us that when the economy is depressed we should spend to put people back to work.  Certainly Republicans are right when they say we can raise revenue without raising taxes by putting people back to work.  But we need to create jobs and cutting spending right now does not create jobs.  In fact, it will probably be a detriment to economic growth.

So yeah, we got a deal, a raw deal.  The joke is on America.  The Tea Party took a non-issue and made it an issue.  Had we focused on economic recovery and created jobs, the deficit issue would have partially mitigated itself and would have become much easier to solve.  Instead we are cutting spending at the wrong time because a group of 70 idiots held the government hostage.  Of course, everyone else in said government deserves blame as well.  The let the Tea Party hijack the debate.  They played along with the shenanigans and bad ideas and now we are worse off for it.

We negotiated with the hostage-takers and so we empowered them.  It's appalling but we did it.  We can hope that at least a few months of certainty will lead to some growth, but in all likelihood the cuts will be more damaging that the sense of relief that America will not default. 

Now we can only hope that we have done enough to relieve the threat of a credit downgrade although the gridlock in Washington means that we are probably facing another such warning in a few months.  The Tea Party has not only damaged our economy but made us a laughingstock in the eyes of the world.  In Athens people are rioting over forced austerity and default but we brought ourselves to the brink willingly.  Next time China proposes the creation of a new reserve currency to replace the dollar, how much weight will American protests carry?  Will we still set the international agenda?  Will all of our talk of austerity and belt-tightening at home lead other nations to eschew their international responsibilities as our rhetoric leads me to believe we will? 

Yes, we got a debt-ceiling deal but it cost us the chance to fix our economy and it undermined our position as the world's leader.  The joke is on us, America, and we can thank the idiots who parade around dressed like they belong in Colonial Williamsburg for the predicament we find ourselves in.