I very much believe that perception is reality. If I go around believing someone is out to get me, no matter how mistaken I am, everything that person does will seem like an attack. The list of how perceptions manifest as realities in everyday life is exhaustive. Politics, of course, is a stark example. In fact, as we have seen with President Obama, politics can be an extrapolation of the particular manifestation I mentioned above.
What happens though, when perceptions are not reality? After all, our opinions and biases color our lenses, but they don't change hard data. Suppose you think that human activity doesn't contribute to climate change, and that therefore there is no need for us to change our habits and energy sources because the earth is just in one of its "cycles," and inevitably that will change and all will be well. It's interesting to accept that aspect of historical science, that the earth is old and has undergone periodic and extended periods of hot/cold extremes, but not to accept the current metrics of science used to warn us of the microwave we're building for ourselves. What are the consequences when those perceptions and realities don't align? Will that knowledge gap doom us? How do we address our problems if we don't even know what they are or understand them?
In February of this year the results of 2012 survey by the National Science Foundation were released. According to the data 26% of Americans thought the sun orbited the Earth. Digest that for a moment. Just over 1/4 of Americans think the sun revolves around the Earth. Somewhere the ghost of Copernicus is pinching himself to see if he's still dead in 2014 or has awoken six centuries ago. If our perceptions are not rooted in fact, the realities they become will turn out very poorly. Like doctors of yore we will be treating patients with leeches, an appealing thought, I know.
Climate change is a glaring example of the knowledge pit, and has serious implications, but according to a recent study "Perils of Perception" it isn't the only thing we get wrong. If you'd like, try taking the 9-question, multiple-choice quiz yourself…I scored 6/9. When you answer a question, right or wrong, it tells you what the average guess was for your country. In America, the average guess for unemployment rate was 32% and for teen pregnancy rate of 24%!! In reality those %s are around 6% (currently) and 3% respectively. If you think we're screwed now, imagine how godawful things would be if 30% of us were out of work and 1/4 of the nation's teenage girls were reproducing! Societal collapse is nigh!
The disconcerting fear is that our lack of knowledge will harden our resolve to see things our way, to make our perceptions into realities, and that therefore our serious issues will be addressed based on prescriptions for the wrong ailments. It's one thing to think the president is Kenyan, Muslim socialist. It's another thing entirely to think the earth is 6000 years old or that people walked alongside dinosaurs. How those manifest politically is important if we are to solve our world's problems.
I find two important and inextricably linked takeaways in all this. First of all, the knowledge pit separating perceptions and realities is a disaster for our society regardless of your political stripes. Take the 32% unemployment figure. Too far in one direction and you think we should torpedo the budget with welfare payments; too far in the other and you probably don't think we should spend that much money on anything.
Which brings me to my second takeaway: whatever the argument, whatever the issue, there is no way we are resolving it unless we bridge the knowledge pit between perception and reality. The world and our ability to understand it have changed. To think that the unemployment rate is 32% is a tragic bit of misinformation that may alter policy. It is important that our civic discourse and media provide us with accurate, unbiased information about what is happening in the world. But thinking that the sun orbits the Earth is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the laws of nature work. That bodes poorly for the future of the individual and all of us.
If America truly wants to be a nation committed to a nation governed by its people, our society must ensure that we, the people, are up to the task of governing. The knowledge pit that can separate our perception from the realities of the world around us is a dangerous trap. If we delude ourselves into addressing imagined or exacerbated problems there is a good chance the real ones will catch up to us.
Thursday, November 13, 2014
Tuesday, November 11, 2014
Happy Veterans Day!
I truly believe that there are many different ways to serve you country, but most of them do not involve putting your life in danger. For all the men and women whose service and sacrifice enshrines my rights, and whose willingness to be a force for good around the world help protects others, thank you for all that you do. This day is for you.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Resuscitation
Last week the Republican Party came back from the dead, which of course shouldn't surprise anyone, since that is what happens as the political pendulum swings every so many years.
I figured that it seemed appropriate for me to resuscitate my blog as the voters of America resuscitated the Republican Party. So after a 7-8 month layoff, here I am.
When I first decided to revive the blog, I thought I might begin by ranting and/or lamenting the fact that Republicans were able to turn obstinacy into gain. But lamenting that does me no good, and as bad as I have found the Republicans to be recently, the strategy of cynicism is not theirs alone, nor is it new to politics. Don't hate the player, hate the game - I hope for more on that topic later.
For now, then, that leaves me with two topics post election-day: what I think the message was; and what I hope Republicans will now do with their majority.
I'll start with the former. The message, I suppose was clear: Obama sucks. It's far past time to defend the president, and whatever the opposition was - and it was both dumb and unfaltering - the president himself wasn't exactly stellar. Far be for me to talk about his legacy at such a premature time, but no doubt voters in 2014 were unimpressed with the president.
But the narrative of whether voters opted FOR Republicans or AGAINST Obama is worth exploring a bit more, particularly because Republicans campaigned not on their plans to govern but almost exclusively, and very explicitly AGAINST Obama. Behind the Republican surge, there were quite a few more forward-looking referendums, and in that, I see a huge sign of progress.
The real wins for America's future last Tuesday were, I think, the minimum wage increases in Arkansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Alaska. As far as I am concerned, a living wage should be a right. It is easily more important to our nation's future than, for example, the right to bear arms, and I was encouraged to see voters simultaneously enact policies themselves via referendum while opting for candidates who still publicly voice support for the debunked and disastrous notion of supply-sided economics.
I don't buy the common political excuse that the messaging just hasn't caught up to the policy. Truthfully, as far as the politics behind it are concerned, the party supporting these ideas is meaningless, and what is far more important than either political party pushing this policy is the fact that the minimum wage votes were referendums. I can only hope this means that the same flawed economic policy that preceded Obama's presidency won't also follow it.
So the election results themselves were more fortuitous - I believe - than the names of the politicians-to-be would have led me to assume.
Just as importantly, what can Republicans do with their new Congressional majorities if they actually dedicate themselves to governing and turn away from the mindless and detrimental zombie-tactics that have defined the party for the last six years?
The five major Republican pushes articulated here are worth considering. I'd like to explore each, one at a time and as a package.
1. Energy - the only concrete issue mentioned here is the Keystone Pipeline which unsurprising. I don't know if Republicans have ideas for energy other than approving the Keystone Pipeline. It'd be great to see them get some momentum around addressing global warming, particularly through an idea like cap-and-trade, which was born in a conservative think tank, but that will necessitate taking on the anti-intellectual base of the party in a way that legislators may be afraid to do. Still, I have and still do support the Keystone Pipeline - if done in an environmentally friendly manner and as a bridge to cleaner and more sustainable energy. While this, I believe, will have nothing like the desired economic effects Republicans predict, it will spur job creation. If coupled with investment in clean energy, this has the potential to be a win, if only a small one.
2. Budget and Spending - my hopes here are low to say the least. I'm all on board with cutting spending and making government more efficient, but I have yet to see a plan that I think achieves those goals. Past budgets have purported to cut spending, but lacked the math to back up that claim. A budget would be nice, but I fear the one Republicans will likely create will lead us to spend more on bombs and less on books. I await with very tepid optimism the first blueprint.
3. Taxes - this deals with an overhaul of the entire tax code rather than simply lowering taxes on the super-rich under the guise of promoting growth. While that would probably be a cornerstone of any Republican plan to overhaul the tax code, it wouldn't be a bad component if the rest of the outline looked good. Simply lowering taxes on the wealthy is an economic plan in need of serious re-evaluation, but the tax code is currently so byzantine and archaic that a full overhaul should be a top priority for everyone. If it is possible to lower rates and close loopholes in a (relatively) revenue neutral manner while simplifying things for everyone, this would really be a huge win and eliminate efficiency in both the public and private sectors.
4. Healthcare - and here we go…still waiting for the predicted disaster of Obamacare to actually develop. Who knows what Republicans will do now that they've spent years calling the law Armageddon without seeing any real signs of the apocalypse materialize? The Affordable Care Act can certainly be improved, and given that Obama's legacy rests upon it, no doubt he'd be a willing partner in trying to strengthen the law, but are Republicans actually interested in strengthening it, or will they double down on the looming-in-perpetuity disaster? Like the budget, this is a realm in which Republicans have long been short on ideas (unless they've been hiding them). I'm curious to see if they actually try to improve healthcare outcomes and contain cost or if they pursue their redacted history in which America died in 2009 because of Obamacare.
5. Trade - I almost feel as thought this was a "throw in" because it should be such a no brainer to agree on free trade deals that I feel as though there is no better reason than "politics" for why more of these agreements haven't already passed. If Obama and Republicans can't come to terms on trade deals then democracy may truly be broken.
On the whole, there are a lot of areas not just for compromise, but for Republican ideas and ideals to propel America forward. Still, the onus for implementing those ideas now fall on a group of people who have spent six years being too immature to try and make them happen for our collective benefit, and instead somehow convinced the nation that their pouting was a reason to let them lead. If Republicans can overhaul the tax code and create budgets based off a sensible new set of laws, then we will all benefit. I'd call that a big IF, however, and I'm far from convinced it can or will happen.
Nevertheless, I'm going to spend at least the next two years, and probably longer, living in a nation lead by a Republican Congress, so I probably ought to hope for the best and use my voice to encourage Republicans to pursue their good ideas that can help us all.
The resuscitation of conservatism brings the revival of this blog. Here's to a good two years for both.
I figured that it seemed appropriate for me to resuscitate my blog as the voters of America resuscitated the Republican Party. So after a 7-8 month layoff, here I am.
When I first decided to revive the blog, I thought I might begin by ranting and/or lamenting the fact that Republicans were able to turn obstinacy into gain. But lamenting that does me no good, and as bad as I have found the Republicans to be recently, the strategy of cynicism is not theirs alone, nor is it new to politics. Don't hate the player, hate the game - I hope for more on that topic later.
For now, then, that leaves me with two topics post election-day: what I think the message was; and what I hope Republicans will now do with their majority.
I'll start with the former. The message, I suppose was clear: Obama sucks. It's far past time to defend the president, and whatever the opposition was - and it was both dumb and unfaltering - the president himself wasn't exactly stellar. Far be for me to talk about his legacy at such a premature time, but no doubt voters in 2014 were unimpressed with the president.
But the narrative of whether voters opted FOR Republicans or AGAINST Obama is worth exploring a bit more, particularly because Republicans campaigned not on their plans to govern but almost exclusively, and very explicitly AGAINST Obama. Behind the Republican surge, there were quite a few more forward-looking referendums, and in that, I see a huge sign of progress.
The real wins for America's future last Tuesday were, I think, the minimum wage increases in Arkansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and Alaska. As far as I am concerned, a living wage should be a right. It is easily more important to our nation's future than, for example, the right to bear arms, and I was encouraged to see voters simultaneously enact policies themselves via referendum while opting for candidates who still publicly voice support for the debunked and disastrous notion of supply-sided economics.
I don't buy the common political excuse that the messaging just hasn't caught up to the policy. Truthfully, as far as the politics behind it are concerned, the party supporting these ideas is meaningless, and what is far more important than either political party pushing this policy is the fact that the minimum wage votes were referendums. I can only hope this means that the same flawed economic policy that preceded Obama's presidency won't also follow it.
So the election results themselves were more fortuitous - I believe - than the names of the politicians-to-be would have led me to assume.
Just as importantly, what can Republicans do with their new Congressional majorities if they actually dedicate themselves to governing and turn away from the mindless and detrimental zombie-tactics that have defined the party for the last six years?
The five major Republican pushes articulated here are worth considering. I'd like to explore each, one at a time and as a package.
1. Energy - the only concrete issue mentioned here is the Keystone Pipeline which unsurprising. I don't know if Republicans have ideas for energy other than approving the Keystone Pipeline. It'd be great to see them get some momentum around addressing global warming, particularly through an idea like cap-and-trade, which was born in a conservative think tank, but that will necessitate taking on the anti-intellectual base of the party in a way that legislators may be afraid to do. Still, I have and still do support the Keystone Pipeline - if done in an environmentally friendly manner and as a bridge to cleaner and more sustainable energy. While this, I believe, will have nothing like the desired economic effects Republicans predict, it will spur job creation. If coupled with investment in clean energy, this has the potential to be a win, if only a small one.
2. Budget and Spending - my hopes here are low to say the least. I'm all on board with cutting spending and making government more efficient, but I have yet to see a plan that I think achieves those goals. Past budgets have purported to cut spending, but lacked the math to back up that claim. A budget would be nice, but I fear the one Republicans will likely create will lead us to spend more on bombs and less on books. I await with very tepid optimism the first blueprint.
3. Taxes - this deals with an overhaul of the entire tax code rather than simply lowering taxes on the super-rich under the guise of promoting growth. While that would probably be a cornerstone of any Republican plan to overhaul the tax code, it wouldn't be a bad component if the rest of the outline looked good. Simply lowering taxes on the wealthy is an economic plan in need of serious re-evaluation, but the tax code is currently so byzantine and archaic that a full overhaul should be a top priority for everyone. If it is possible to lower rates and close loopholes in a (relatively) revenue neutral manner while simplifying things for everyone, this would really be a huge win and eliminate efficiency in both the public and private sectors.
4. Healthcare - and here we go…still waiting for the predicted disaster of Obamacare to actually develop. Who knows what Republicans will do now that they've spent years calling the law Armageddon without seeing any real signs of the apocalypse materialize? The Affordable Care Act can certainly be improved, and given that Obama's legacy rests upon it, no doubt he'd be a willing partner in trying to strengthen the law, but are Republicans actually interested in strengthening it, or will they double down on the looming-in-perpetuity disaster? Like the budget, this is a realm in which Republicans have long been short on ideas (unless they've been hiding them). I'm curious to see if they actually try to improve healthcare outcomes and contain cost or if they pursue their redacted history in which America died in 2009 because of Obamacare.
5. Trade - I almost feel as thought this was a "throw in" because it should be such a no brainer to agree on free trade deals that I feel as though there is no better reason than "politics" for why more of these agreements haven't already passed. If Obama and Republicans can't come to terms on trade deals then democracy may truly be broken.
On the whole, there are a lot of areas not just for compromise, but for Republican ideas and ideals to propel America forward. Still, the onus for implementing those ideas now fall on a group of people who have spent six years being too immature to try and make them happen for our collective benefit, and instead somehow convinced the nation that their pouting was a reason to let them lead. If Republicans can overhaul the tax code and create budgets based off a sensible new set of laws, then we will all benefit. I'd call that a big IF, however, and I'm far from convinced it can or will happen.
Nevertheless, I'm going to spend at least the next two years, and probably longer, living in a nation lead by a Republican Congress, so I probably ought to hope for the best and use my voice to encourage Republicans to pursue their good ideas that can help us all.
The resuscitation of conservatism brings the revival of this blog. Here's to a good two years for both.
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