Sunday, March 11, 2012

Two Things I Do Not Want

A nuclear-armed Iran, and a war in Iran. I could do without both of those. Unfortunately for me, it seems like we are moving towards both. I have absolutely no faith that the loony, Holocaust-denying ayatollahs won't do something crazy. General Dempsey thinks the ayatollahs are rational. I'm less sure. While I don't think they will launch a nuclear strike on Israel, a nuclear-armed Iran makes nuclear-armed terrorist groups much more likely.

While I have no faith in the ayatollahs, I do have faith in the president. If sanctions don't work I am confident Obama will take the necessary steps to ensure that Iran does not obtain a bomb. But more importantly, I am confident that President Obama will do everything in his power to make sure we do not have to use military force to prevent the Iranian development of nuclear weapons.

The problem with Iran, other than the Iranian leadership, is actually Russia and China. Two countries that are similarly the problem with Syria. China, at least, has a legitimate need for Iranian oil. This does not excuse their refusal to back sanctions; Chinese leadership has placed economic concerns over international well-being and their own national security. Russian leadership is much more callous. Swamped by his own issues at home, Vladimir Putin shamelessly supports autocracy in Syria and theocratic autocracy in Iran to give legitimacy to his own oppressive government in Russia.

President Obama's strategy should be focused on getting China to agree to sanctions that would permanently cripple Iran's economy and force them to the negotiating table. The Chinese demand for oil is insatiable, but it does not have to come from Iran. The President should approve the Keystone pipeline and continue to enact policies that will make America more of an energy exporter. He should also work with other Middle Eastern allies to ensure that any disruption in China's oil supply from Iran is made up for by increased importation from Saudi Arabia, and now, perhaps Libya and Iraq as well.

Coupled with sanctions from the EU that are already squeezing Iran's economy, these steps would help get the Chinese behind tough sanctions that would force Iran to negotiate. Russian cynicism may be insurmountable, but Chinese economic concerns can be addressed, perhaps even in a manner that helps spark our own economic recovery.

A nuclear Iran is threat to the entire world, and the United States should make sure that Iran's nuclear dreams never come to fruition. Working diplomatically and economically with China in that endeavor would have other benefits as well. While President Obama is right to say that the use of military force is and will always be on the table, he is also right to pursue other effective and less costly avenues to derail Iran's nuclear ambitions.

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