Whoa! Egypt! Who'd've thunk it? A whiff of Jasmine in Tunisia and autocracies across Africa and into western Asia start to teeter. What a beautiful thing. Right?
Maybe. What does Democracy in the Middle East look like? Does it look like Hezbollah in Lebanon or Hamas in Gaza? The United States has an obligation to support democracy, and should firmly support the nascent movements in the most effective manner (which may mean leaving them to their own devices and not interfering at all), but what does a more democratic Egypt, Yemen or Jordan mean for us?
I don't have an answer to that question. Certainly the idea is that democracy is good period, and so we should support it regardless. Certainly some believe that a democratic government in Egypt will support America and American goals. I'm not ready to bet the farm on that just yet. After all, Hezbollah is the democratically elected government of Lebanon.
The Middle East is a region in which our political ties are weak but our economic ties are strong. In light of the upheaval in Egypt, our political ties are even weaker. This isn't necessarily a bad thing. Propping up dictators who marginally support us while repressing their own people isn't good foreign policy, but our history of negotiating successfully with Arab democracies is as limited as...well, Arab democracies themselves. In fact, we can't even get our one true ally and the only real democracy in the region, Israel, to act in their own best interest let alone ours. How difficult will it be to simultaneously support the Egyptian people and press the American agenda?
We should start by doing two things. As I've already mentioned, we should support the fledgling democratic movements. This may be best accomplished simply be staying out of the way; Arab peoples are skeptical of a country they view as being interested more in oil and Israel than in Arab well-being. However, if it's necessary to be more proactive then we must. President Obama is working with President Hosni Mubarak to get him to step down. Whether through aggressive action or aggressive inaction or something in between, America must let Egyptians know we stand with them.
The second thing we need to do is prove both to the Arab world and to ourselves that we can live without their oil. Many Arabs believe that we support autocratic governments for a guaranteed supply of oil (Saudi Arabia anyone?). Many Arabs believe this because it is true. America can extradite itself from some of the tricky situations in the Middle East by supporting democracy in Egypt and alternative energy in America. By reducing our reliance on Middle Eastern oil, we'll not only become more self-sufficient, but we'll put ourselves in a position to work with Arab democracies without the stigma that currently exists.
Finally, the time is well past due for the United States to pressure Israel into doing what is in it's own best interest and help form a Palestinian state. The Israel/Palestine issue is too lengthy and complex to be discussed in detail here, but never before in its history has Israel found willing partners for peace among the Palestinian leadership. Until now. The Palestinian authority under Mahmoud Abbas has proven that they are serious about peace and security. Israel needs a Palestinian state almost as much as Palestinians do. Helping make this a reality will not only create stability in the region and help foster peace for both Israel and it's neighbor. It will also make America safer by undermining the rhetoric of Osama bin Laden, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and the like.
Democracy is coming to the Middle East. This is going to be a good thing, but there is still work to be done. The United States must take steps to support the Arab world and reaffirm our commitment to human rights and democracy, but we must do this by taking concrete steps to make the region safer and more stable and ending our addiction to foreign oil.
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