Assuming no agreement is reached by January 1, 2013, massive spending cuts to social programs and the military will go into effect, and the Bush tax cuts will elapse for all income levels. In theory this wouldn't be awful as America needs more revenue and less spending. In practice, this would have disastrous economic consequences.
As has been well documented by everyone from Nobel Prize winning economists to Econ 101 textbooks, cutting spending or raising taxes during a recession is a bad idea. The whole political escapade that got us into the mess is a product of Republican posturing about a deficit that is a secondary issue to the economy, and for which they are largely responsible anyhow. Nevertheless there is a need to cut the deficit, and if Republicans have forced the issue at the expense of an economic recovery, then we may as well have real debate and come to an agreement.
Except we're not. When the attempt at a grand bargain fell apart last summer - an interesting read here that seems to spread the blame fairly evenly and shines light on just how much of a jerk Eric Cantor really is - politicians reverted to name calling and fear-mongering. Most of the blame for this, just like much of the blame for the deficit, can be placed squarely on the Republicans, but Obama retreated into his shell as well, and Senate Democrats failed to take action steps to assuage problems, economic, deficit or otherwise. In short, once the President and Boehner failed to reach a deal, everyone else stopped trying. Furthermore, the only people offering real ideas in Washington are Obama and Paul Ryan, and Paul Ryan's ideas are generally more harmful than helpful.
So now we're moving towards another economic disaster, and there is little hope for a solution by January 1st, 2013 even though we have a full seven months to avert it. It would be remarkably foolish to assume Republicans would be willing to do anything that would help improve the state of the nation in the throes of an election when they have refused to do anything helpful for the past three years. Sadly the campaign season consumes the lives of our legislators for too many months when they should be focused on improving America.
So tax time is coming, so is cut time, so is crisis time. America's political system is broken, and only one political party shows even remote interest in fixing it. Perhaps the impending crisis, which both parties recognize, will force legislators to find common ground and finally do something good for the country's economic woes and fiscal future. But if Republicans refuse to make the same sacrifices on taxes that President Obama and Democrats have shown themselves willing to make on entitlement programs, then neither side will get their way and everyone will suffer.
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